POPULATION INTELLIGENCE · AD-PERFORMANCE PREDICTION

Predict ad performance before you spend.

Upload an ad creative, set Meta-style targeting, and a synthetic panel — drawn from a calibrated 8-billion-person population model — predicts CTR, CVR, brand recall, stop-scroll, and sentiment. Predictions are shrunk toward Wordstream's 2024 priors with 95% confidence intervals. Catch the dud before the auction does.

Test an ad →Ads Labo via API

8B-PERSON POPULATION MODEL · CTR/CVR CALIBRATED TO WORDSTREAM 2024 · 91.9% PEW PARITY ON OPINION ITEMS

WHAT YOU GET BACK

Six metrics on every report, calibrated against industry priors and broken out by cohort. Plus the verbatim reasons each respondent gave you.

CTR / CVR

Click-through and conversion.

Predicted click-through rate and conversion rate with 95% Wilson confidence intervals, shrunk via Bayesian shrinkage (k=80) toward 2024 Wordstream priors for your platform × vertical. Calibration is publicly disclosed in every report.

STOP-SCROLL

Will they actually stop?

Stop-scroll rate predicts the share of impressions where the creative arrests attention long enough to be processed. Critical for short-form (Reels / Shorts / TikTok) where the first 1.5 seconds decide everything.

BRAND RECALL

Will they remember the brand?

24-hour aided brand recall — does the creative build memory or burn the impression? Recall is the leading indicator of medium-term brand health, but rarely measured at pre-flight. Ad Lab does it before you spend.

SENTIMENT + CONVICTION

How does it land?

Per-respondent sentiment with self-reported conviction (1–10). Top-8 verbatim 'why I tapped' and 'why I skipped' quotes ranked by conviction, tagged with cohort. This is the qualitative layer your CTR number alone can't give you.

HOW IT WORKS

STEP 1

Upload the creative

Image or video, up to 200 MB. The vision pass extracts category, tone, appeal, hook strength (1–10), face count, and brand-mention timing.

STEP 2

Configure targeting

Geography, age range, gender, income tier, IAB Tech Lab interest taxonomy. Live debounced reach estimate as you build the audience.

STEP 3

Pick the platform

Meta Feed, Reels, Stories — placement-aware predictions. TikTok placement coming soon.

STEP 4

Review the predictions

CTR / CVR / stop-scroll / recall with 95% Wilson CIs, cohort tables, top verbatim quotes, calibration bar, raw vs Wordstream comparison.

WHAT TO USE ADS LABO FOR

Creative pre-flight

Test 3–5 ad variants against the same audience before committing media spend. Rank by predicted CTR and surface why one wins.

Audience targeting validation

Compare predicted performance across cohorts before launching the campaign. Catch mis-targeted creative before it hits the auction.

Hook iteration

Iterate on first 3 seconds of video, opening lines, scroll-stopper imagery. Pre-flight every cut against a fresh, audience-matched panel.

Geographic / language splits

Test the same creative across 25 country-level audiences. Catch when an ad reads great in the US but lands flat in Singapore.

Platform fit

Reels vs Stories vs Feed. Each placement carries different attention norms; Ad Lab predicts placement-aware CTR before you boost.

Budget allocation

Predict per-cohort CVR before the auction sets your CPM. Reroute spend toward the cohorts the model says will convert.

HONEST FRAMING

Calibrated for rank-order accuracy, not absolute prediction.

Ads Labo is best at telling you which of N variants will outperform — rank-order accuracy is in the 60–75% range vs. live auction. Absolute CTR is harder; we shrink toward 2024 Wordstream priors and disclose the calibration on every report. We don’t output CPM or CPI — those are auction-driven and not predictable from creative alone. Use Ads Labo for pre-flight triage, not as a substitute for a live test on a small budget.

PANEL SIZES

Larger panels tighten confidence intervals and let cohort cells reach statistical significance.

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